HARNESS RACE PROFIT PORTFOLIO UPDATES
a free and periodical supplement for readers who have already purchased the Harness Race Profit Portfolio
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NEW EARLY SPEED REVISITED
(another update for readers of the Harness Race Profit Portfolio)
When a horse shows early speed for the first time, it is often the sign of a wake-up from previous lethargy, even if he later drops back.
In the fourth race on May 25 at the Meadowlands, CRAZY CHARACTER fit the description of a wake-up suspect, with a curious subplot. In his nine previous listed races, he had never been nearer than 3 ½ lengths at the first call, and that was in fifth place. One time he made it to third place at the first-quarter call, but he was six lengths back. Otherwise, he was a confirmed back-of-the-packer.
Then, on 15 May, when dropping in class, he captured the lead at the first quarter, while first over, eventually settling into second position into the stretch call. He faded to a distant fourth. The chart comment was: "quit badly".
You had to go ten races back to find the last time CRAZY CHARACTER had won a race.
Space does not allow for a horse-by-horse analysis but please accept my evaluation that we were dealing with a lesser-of-evils race. The morning line maker seemed to have no clue, and he ended up by making CRAZY CHARACTER the lukewarm 3-1 favorite.
The past performances were a mishmash of various levels of confusion. I explored, tinkered and groped between the lines for some striking race shape to emerge. Scanning with an open mind, without a preconceived information target, I realized that CRAZY CHARACTER was the most lightly-raced horse in the field, with 29 career races. The other relatively "lightly" raced horse, KICKS N GRINS,  was also the only other 4-year-old in the field, with 44 career races. I told myself to stop getting confused by KICKS N GRINS and to stick with the subject at hand.
The career-races stat for the rest of the field was 70, 83, 94, 129, 144, 179 and 208 races respectively.
In a field of venerable mediocrities, it seemed more likely that you could teach a young horse to do new tricks. In the lightly-raced context, the new-found early speed of CRAZY CHARACTER could be magnified into a double attribute.
The betting public was not enamored with CRAZY CHARACTER. Disregarding the morning line, they made him 7-1.
Portfolio readers are aware of my research on the new-found early speed factor, as a potential automatic bet. I've been searching for the missing second factor. I suspected that the lightly-raced factor might give more weight to a projection of improving performance.
CRAZY CHARACTER did not rush immediately to the lead, pacing fifth when moving outside of horses at the quarter. By the half, he was taking the lead from a first-over position. The rest of the race developed into a walk in the park for CRAZY CHARACTER.
For me, this was the end of the episode. He paid $16.60 to win.
But after the fact, I noticed that the second "newest" horse in the field, none other than KICKS N GRINS, finished second at 40-1, triggering a $241 exacta.  
Maybe it's pure coincidence, but the third newest horse in the field, TAROT HANOVER, finished third at 30-1 and the trifecta came back at $2,819.
As I say, this could all be a pure coincidence ... the fact that the three most lightly-raced horses finished one-two-three in order. But I sure will look into this matter.
I'm just thrilled that CRAZY CHARACTER has provided yet one more case history of the new-found early speed factor, and maybe tapped us into the elusive "other" factor: lightly-raced (in comparison to the rest of the field) and therefore with more eligible for improvement.


THE "EARLY-SPEED-WAKE-UP" FACTOR AND "SPEED POINTS"
(Special feature update for readers of the "Harness Race Profit Portfolio")
Tbred handicappers will recall the William Quirin speed point method. Take the last three running lines and give points for horses that were within two lengths of the lead during the first two calls. Though not intended for harness racing, the Speed Point method, in a simplified format, helps harness players to uncover the type of pace-advantage I've advocated. Or if not, when all horses in a field show similar fractions, we've identified a probable chaos scenario and should pass.
Race 12 at the Meadowlands on April 15 provides a worthy example. The question is not only which horse has more speed points but "how" he earned those points.
Rule:
Use the last three races. A horse gets one speed point if he's in the money at the second call. He gets two speed points if he's leading at the second call. Maximum six speed points.
#1 Natural Cam: tenth, fifth and fourth at the second call of his last three races. ZERO speed points.
#2 Philco's Laughing: seventh, second, and fourth in his last three second calls. ONE speed point. Fraction: 58 plus.
#3 Ultimate Pursuit: first in his most recent second call (while earning no speed points for his previous two races.) TWO speed points. Fraction: 54.3. Important: he was showing "new early speed" in his last race, since, in his previous eleven races, he'd NEVER had the lead at the first or second call. This is the New Early Speed method we've written about previously.
# 4 What's Demotta: tenth, seventh and ninth at second call of last three races. ZERO speed points.
#5 Re Act: eighth , seventh, and ninth at the second call of his last three races. ZERO speed points.
#6 Travelling Man: ninth, fifth, and eighth at last three second calls. ZERO speed points.
#7 Parisian Fallow N led at the second call of his last three races, in 53.4, 56.4 and 56.4, for SIX speed points.
#8 Mr. Trentonian: fifth, fifth and second at the second call of his last three races for ONE speed point. His one speed point was earned on a sloppy track, his only decent race of his past twelve efforts. Thus, this single speed point gets an asterisk for unreliability.
#9 Cam St Partners: ninth, ninth and eighth at the second call of his last three races for ZERO speed points.
#10 Soky Stallone: sixth, ninth and sixth at the second call of his last three races for ZERO speed points.
This field is loaded with paceless horses!
Parisian Fallow N's 6 speed points stand out. But Ultimate Pursuit, having shown fresh early speed, has the big wakeup sign, the pattern uncovered by my research. Often, fresh early speed may project to a pressing effort in the next race. 
P-r-e-s-s without s-t-r-e-s-s
The speed points / plus / fraction show that Ultimate Pursuit can control the pace as the presser. Even if he must pace in the company of other horses behind PFN, he would be the "stalker" among  "chasers", given his pace advantage. (A stalker is ready to pounce while chasers are expending more energy than they should.)
With Parisian Fallow N as the 3-1 favorite and Ultimate Pursuit at 9-1, there's more value on the new-early-speed horse: Ultimate Pursuit.
Result:
Parisian Fallow N took the lead. Close up were Re Act and Ultimate Pursuit (pacing like his name). Re Act was in an uncharacteristic chasing position. Ultimate Pursuit pounced and won, paying $20.00. The tri sandwich (which I did not have), with the two pace horses first and third and Re Act sandwiched in between, paid $1,482.80.

VARIATION ON THE 2-SECOND RULE
As you must have realized, the 2-second rule is essentially a key race method which allows us to bet back horses that are coming from a key race (an exceptionally fast heat).
Some of you may feel frustrated that a 2-second horse is not found on every card, and sometimes a week can go by before any emerge in the pps. But isn't that what profitable race betting is all about? Waiting for the right spot, and only then attacking.
In any case, I have a variation of the 2-second rule, which also allows for quick scanning of the pps (a time saver).
THE 1-SECOND RULE
We're looking for a horse whose half-mile and three-quarter-mile fractions are at least a second faster than those of the other horses in this field, based on the previous-race running lines. We're talking about a horse that has shown blistering early pace. Most of these horses have faded off the board after having been used too much. In tonight's race, if they qualify by the 1-second rule, they become candidates to monopolize the pace of the race. With a probable slower pace tonight, a 1-second qualifier is in a position to ration his speed more effectively. By having shown he can sustain a fast pace for at least two calls, we can be sure that this horse is fit.
One advantage of both the two-second rule and its one-second variation is that you can eyeball the past performances on a card in a matter of minutes and know whether there are horses that qualifies. The other advantage is that the horse's competitiveness in its most recent fast race is masked by mediocre or poor finish positions, thus boosting the odds.
The player who prefers not to use the 1-second rule as a mechanical method can use it as a powerful handicapping factor, in combination with comprehensive analysis of the race. For example, a horse who has the 1-second advantage at only the third call but not the second call, has still shown the speed to be well-placed going into the stretch. If he got the 1-second advantage after a first-over earlier in the race or got it in spite of an outside post position, then it's impact is enhanced.
By the spirit of the law, if the horse's second and third quarter last-race fractions are clearly superior to the fractions of all other horses at these calls, even if the advantage is not a whole second, then we do indeed have a live contender. FR
Of course, you gotta compare apples with apples and not with oranges. You can't compare fractions from a mile track with those of a half mile track, because mile track fractions are always faster.
The 1-second rule helps you focus on pace-advantage horses. The first thing I do when dealing with the pps of a race is to see if any horse has the pace advantage. If I find none, I usually pass and go on to the next race.
PS. The Big Angle. The fractions of a horse's qualifying race are faster than or equal to the real-race fractions of the other horses in the field.                           To the top